- What is it?
- A predictor of mortality rate of US population based on demographics and age.
- What's the point?
- You can check the probability that someone in a given population subgroup will die within the selected time period.
- Some of the questions it might help answer are:
- How much money should you put in your nest egg?
- Is that life insurance a good deal?
- Is it worth retiring early with a smaller pension, or wait to be fully vested?
US Mortality Rate Predictor
Based on CDC 2013 Mortality Rates
ibinado / July 2015
Mortality Rate Predictor
Underlying Mortality Rate Data
Mortality rates are based on data from the CDC WONDER Online Database.
The graph below shows the overall yearly mortality rate by age across all population groups.
Prediction Algorithm
From the yearly mortality rate data we predict the mortality rate over the prediction time range with the following formula:
\[overall\_mortality\_rate = 1 - \displaystyle\prod_{age=start}^{end} (1 - mortality\_rate_{age})\]
- CDC data only covers mortality rates until 85 years of age
- predictor reuses the 85-year mortality rate for greater ages
- leads to underestimation of mortality rate for older ages
Go try it out for yourself
It's easy.
- Select your demographic and prediction time range.
- Get a result instantly.
- Enjoy your life!